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JSU Political Science Professor |
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April 7, 2003 -- After the war, American occupation troops will be caught in the middle of hostilities between ethnic groups. In northern Iraq, Kurds and other ethnic groups will fight each other for possession of some areas, especially around Kirkuk. In southern Iraq, the Shiite Moslem Arabs will take vengeance on the Sunni Moslem Arab minority that supported the regime of Saddam Hussein. Meanwhile, a guerilla movement, composed of Sunni Arab Iraqis and militant Moslems from other countries, will continue to hit at American occupation troops. The United States will be in Iraq for years. Direct rule by American generals will soon give way to a coalition government put together by the United States and composed of various ethnic, religious, and political factions. That coalition will fail to provide an effective, unified leadership for the country. During the years of the United States’ presence in Iraq, Americans will suffer more casualties than during the brief war itself. Meanwhile, the United States will pour billions of dollars of aid into Iraq. Eventually, the United States will withdraw and leave in power a new dictatorial regime (which much of the U.S. mass media will refer to as “democratic”). The American invasion and occupation of Iraq has caused a great increase of hatred in the Moslem world. Moderate Moslem religious leaders in many countries will continue to abandon their lukewarm sympathy for the U.S. war on terrorism and join the radicals in calling for holy war against the United States. Middle Eastern Moslems will look upon the invasion as an act of neocolonialism and as a new Western Crusade - rekindling fears and historical resentments that have been nurtured for centuries. Ironically, Saddam Hussein -- the secular dictator whom Al Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden had long denounced as a traitor to radical Islam -- is already being transformed by Al Qaeda into a martyr to their cause. The result will be more recruits for Al Qaeda -- more suicide bombers, more terrorist actions against the United States and against Americans overseas. That hatred will intensify if the Bush Administration uses its base in Iraq to demand that Syria withdraw its troops from northern Lebanon and if it makes demands on Iran. As moderates join radicals in outrage at U.S. policies in and around Iraq, there will be increased opposition (maybe outright revolt) against pro-American governments such as those in Pakistan and Egypt. Meanwhile, Europeans will continue to be increasingly anti-American, and support for NATO (which is under U.S. leadership) will erode. If the American Government does not mend the public relations damage done by the Iraqi invasion and by U.S. policies in the Arab-Israeli dispute, in a few years the Western European Union (the military alliance which is subordinate to NATO) will terminate NATO by seceding from it. With the end of American military leadership there will be a gradual erosion of American economic and political influence in Europe. |
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